The reality of kids shifting to Government Schools in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Analysis of ASI Survey Report
Analysis of ASI Survey Report
by Muhammad Saleem (@memzarma)
A news report in the Express
Tribune appeared on 21st June, 2016 with the title “From private to
public: 34,000 students make transition to government schools” [ https://tribune.com.pk/story/1127618/private-public-34000-students-make-transition-government-schools/] terming
improvement in KP government schools as a case of restored confidence on KP
Government. The report was widely shared on social media, especially from PTI
accounts on twitter and facebook. At least two private TV channels run video
reports describing the development as indication of the arrival of PTI’s
promised change. Reports at both the electronic & print media quote an
‘independent’ survey [link to the survey at the end of the article] carried out by a non-profit international organization
called Adam Smith International (ASI).
Today KP Education
Minister did a tweet and the number of students shifting from private school to
government school rose to 1,51,000 kids.
Before discussing reporting of
the survey in electronic & print media, we will first analyze the survey
methodology, its conclusions and the organization which carried out the survey.
Over the years, enrollment in
government schools as a percentage of total enrollment is on the decline across
Pakistan. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, primary level enrollment in Government schools
was 78% of total enrollment in 2004-05 which declines to 69% in 2014-15
according to PSLM surveys. Both demand and supply side factors are being cited
in the literature for this shift from government schools to private schools. In
this backdrop, any report or survey claiming that parents are shifting their
kids from private schools to government schools is indeed eye-catching.
Being a skeptic of PTI’s ‘change’
in education sector in KP, I obtained ASI’s survey report (18 pages in total)
which was published in May 2016 with the title ‘Survey of Children Leaving
Private Schools And Joining Government Schools’. Following are some key points
in the survey.
1. The
survey was conducted by ASI which works in close collaboration with government
of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in improving education sector delivery in the province.
Thus, the survey is NOT third party evaluation of education reforms in the
province, as best practice evaluation would require.
2. The
figure of 34,000 students leaving private school for government schools, is a
claim of KP Elementary & Secondary Education Department and not of the
survey itself. Reports in print and electronic media wrongly attributed the
figure to an ‘independent’ survey.
3. The
survey report says that it first conducted a pilot survey in one district,
District Haripur, to find out the reasons behind this migration. Interestingly,
the report says that the results from the pilot survey were ‘inconclusive’ as
the majority of students left private schools because either their private
schools were closed down or no further grades were available in these private
schools. How they can term these results inconclusive when they took a sample
from the population of those total 34,000 students in the province?
Surprisingly, the pilot survey from one district has a much greater sample size (182
students) as compared to a ‘detailed’ survey undertaken in four (4) districts with a
total sample size of only 278 students. Also, the survey managers prefer to exclude
the Haripur district from the more ‘detailed’ survey.
4. The
detailed survey conducted to ‘delve deeper’ for understanding the phenomenon
took the government claim for granted and did not look at the reverse
migration. There may be a lot of parents who may by switching their kids from
government schools to private schools over the same period. A better
understanding of the phenomenon can only be achieved if the survey have looked
at net migration.
5. For
the second detailed survey, the report claims that it only looked at those
students who migrated from private schools to government schools for ‘other
reasons pertinent to the quality of education’. This is a classic case of
selection bias where the total population is no more 34,000 migrated students but a portion of it which left private schools for government schools due to quality of education. Kids leaving private schools for government schools as parents may not be able to afford it any more were left out from the survey.
6.The
detailed survey selected four districts for the analysis with very tricky
reasoning. The report claims that at the first level, ‘districts that only had
data from either male or female schools’ were dropped. This, according to the
report, drop five (5) districts from the analysis which means that either education
reforms were not uniform or the data is not available. The sampling strategy
further says that another four (4) districts were removed from the survey for security
reason. The survey report did not name these four (4) districts. How it is possible that while kids can
attend schools in these districts but parents of the same kids cannot be
surveyed due to security reasons? At the third level, another four (4) districts were
dropped out from the analysis where migration of students from private schools
to government schools is less than 500 students. Does this mean that the
province-wise education ‘reforms’ couldn’t reach these four (4) districts? Remember,
replies to Imran Khan question of education reforms in his public gathering at
Bannu? For the final analysis, a total of 4 districts were selected;
Abbottabad, D I Khan, Peshawar & Swat.
7. After
tricky selection of districts for the survey, it is now turn to select
students’ families for the survey. The survey team obtained phone numbers of
1,124 randomly selected students whose guardians would be reached via phone
calls. On phone calls, the survey team could establish contact with guardians
of 945 students where they select 278 households for the detailed survey. The
remaining (945-278=667) 71% households of the total were considered ‘invalid’
households because they shifted their children from private schools to government
schools either because their private schools is being closed down or no
further grades were available in these private schools. The survey now
analyzes these 278 households to find out reasons behind their migration. Imagine!
8. The
ASI survey report claims that its survey team was accompanied by a focal person
from either the DEO Male or Female’s office to conduct individual interviews
with the head of households. This was probably done to ensure transparency and
independence of the survey? Even here, 52 interviews were done via phone.
9. Questions
were asked about past decisions of the guardians about the reasons for
enrolling in private schools and not in government schools. Majority responded
that at that time, private schools has better quality than government schools.
The interesting part in the report comes when the survey team asked about their
current choices. Table 6 and Table 7 in the survey reported answers to
two (which is in fact one?) question. According to table 6 titled ‘Grade-wise Reasons for
Leaving Private School’ during last 6 months, 139 guardians of the students
responded that they left private schools because these schools are too
expensive. This comes around 50% of the total households which mean that half of the kids were shifted to government schools due to poverty. Only 78 guardians
responded that they left private schools because of low quality. Remember
selection of the total sample size of 278 households? Despite removing the
‘invalid’ households, it still has households where kids are being shifted from private
schools to government schools due to their financial constraints. Interestingly and
surprisingly, table 7 titled “Grade-Wise Reasons for Enrolling into Government
Schools” is also being produced. Are table 6 & 7 not reporting same exact
question? Here the survey team found that 45% of total children are shifting to government schools
because its quality is better than private schools.
Reporting of the Survey:
Now let’s come to the reporting
of this survey in electronic and print media. One report appeared on SAMAA TV
and tweeted from the official account of PTI. The video report says “But with
[PTI} government efforts, quality of education improved in government schools
and thus 34,000 students got admission in government schools. This fact was
revealed in a survey by a non-governmental organization”. As shown in the earlier analysis, neither the
survey revealed this nor the findings suggest any such thing. Also the whole
selection process of the sample students is faulty.
A video still taken by @YaqubImmegret
from the above is presented here to see the quality of a math teacher in a
government school (tweet:
Same is the case with Express
Tribune report which originally reported the survey findings. The report in the
ET did not mention that the 34,000 figures is a claim of KP’s Elementary &
Secondary Education Department.
The survey conducted by Adam Smith International can be read here. https://www.scribd.com/doc/316114863/KPESE-Public-Schools-Migration-Survey-May16
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